Why peace remains elusive in Pakistan’s troubled Balochistan | Conflict News

Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest and poorest province, shares a southwestern border with the country and is marked by a decades-long conflict. The relationship between the province and the Pakistani state has been strained almost since Pakistan’s creation in August 1947, following the end of British colonial rule in the subcontinent.

A History of Conflict

Violence has been a recurring feature of Balochistan’s integration into Pakistan, beginning formally in 1948. While periods of calm have occurred, the conflict has recently intensified, reaching what analysts describe as an unprecedented phase.

On January 31, coordinated attacks by secessionist groups seeking independence targeted nearly a dozen cities across the province. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) led the attacks, resulting in the deaths of more than 30 civilians and at least 18 law enforcement personnel. Security forces responded with operations that reportedly killed over 150 fighters.

Roots of the Discontent

The origins of the conflict trace back to the final years of British rule and the political uncertainties surrounding Pakistan’s independence. In 1947, Balochistan wasn’t a unified political entity. The British directly administered “Chief Commissioner’s Balochistan,” while other areas consisted of princely states – Kalat, Makran, Las Bela, and Kharan – linked to the British Crown through treaties.

The Khanate of Kalat was initially recognized as independent by Pakistan’s founder, Muhammad Ali Jinnah. However, this position shifted as the strategic importance of Balochistan’s coastline, providing access to the Strait of Hormuz, became apparent. Mir Ahmed Yar Khan, the khan of Kalat, agreed to accede to Pakistan on March 27, 1948.

His brother, Abdul Karim, rejected this agreement and initiated the first Baloch rebellion by leading fighters into Afghanistan. This rebellion was short-lived, ending with his surrender, but it was viewed by Baloch nationalists as a “forced accession” and laid the groundwork for future resistance.

Cycles of Rebellion

A pattern emerged: political exclusion leading to armed resistance, followed by military responses and temporary periods of calm. The second major uprising began in 1958, triggered by Pakistan’s “One Unit” scheme, which dissolved provincial identities. Baloch leaders saw this as an erosion of their autonomy and demanded the release of Mir Ahmed Yar Khan.

Nawab Nauroz Khan led a subsequent rebellion, resulting in his arrest and the execution of associates. A third phase of unrest occurred in the 1960s, fueled by opposition to military rule and demands for political rights. The most intense conflict erupted in the 1970s after the dismissal of the elected provincial government led by the National Awami Party (NAP).

Thousands of Baloch fighters clashed with approximately 80,000 Pakistani troops, resulting in numerous deaths. The fighting concluded in 1977 after General Zia-ul-Haq seized power and granted amnesty to Baloch fighters, though core grievances remained unaddressed.

Contemporary Challenges

Following a period of relative calm, resentment persisted, with critics accusing the state of exploiting Balochistan’s natural resources while neglecting local communities. The fifth and current rebellion began in the early 2000s, sparked by incidents such as the 2005 rape of Shazia Khalid, a physician, allegedly by an army captain.

The killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti, a former chief minister and popular tribal chief, in a military operation in August 2006 further escalated the conflict, turning him into a symbol of Baloch resistance and fueling calls for independence. Recent protests have been increasingly led by younger, middle-class Baloch, with women playing a prominent role.

The state’s response has involved a significant security presence and tactics criticized by rights groups. Activists accuse the government of killing and forcibly disappearing thousands of ethnic Baloch suspected of supporting the rebellion. The government denies these accusations, suggesting many missing individuals have joined rebel groups.

Economic and Geopolitical Factors

The ongoing rebellion coincides with major shifts in Pakistan’s political economy, including large-scale extraction of natural gas, plans for deep-sea ports at Gwadar, mineral excavation, and the $62 billion China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Many Baloch groups view these projects as exploitative, marginalizing local communities.

Armed groups like the BLA and the Balochistan Liberation Front frame their struggle as resistance to colonial-style exploitation and a pursuit of “national liberation.” Pakistan has accused regional rival India of supporting separatists, citing the 2016 arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav, allegedly an Indian intelligence operative.

Looking Ahead

The 2010s saw more sophisticated Baloch armed groups targeting Chinese citizens and projects, including attacks on Gwadar port, a luxury hotel, the Chinese consulate in Karachi, and a Chinese cultural centre. As violence intensifies, the government has increased its focus on extracting Balochistan’s mineral wealth.

Given the province’s challenging terrain and the deep-seated grievances of the Baloch people, a solely military approach is unlikely to resolve the conflict. A shift towards political dialogue and addressing the root causes of the unrest could be a possible next step. However, the chief minister of the province has indicated a preference for military solutions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA)?

The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) is a secessionist group seeking independence for Balochistan and led the coordinated attacks on January 31 that triggered the latest escalation of violence.

What role does the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) play in the conflict?

Many Baloch groups view the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as a form of exploitation, believing that it benefits outside interests while marginalizing local communities.

Has there been previous attempts to resolve the conflict?

Yes, previous attempts to resolve the conflict have included amnesties for fighters, but core grievances have remained unaddressed, leading to recurring cycles of rebellion and suppression.

What will it take to achieve a lasting peace in Balochistan?